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19 April 2004

The Hypocrites Market

The excuse for changing the tune on the property market.

I have read in the NSW newspapers the scathing comments and articles over the NSW Government changes to Stamp Duty and Property taxes. It seems investors, agents and Real Estate Institutes are all using this as an excuse for a full blown property collapse!

However, it was not so long ago these same people were forecasting sustained double-digit growth for Australian property prices. If their predictions are true (let’s be conservative for them and expect 10%pa growth for the 5 years coming – some were expecting 15-20% growth), then the extra stamp duty cost would change their 10% pa projection to 9.4% pa. Hardly something to worry about.

Yet, suddenly, they are completely changing tune and blaming the Carr Government for drastically changing market conditions and creating the scene of a Carr-driven property market collapse!

Before I go on, let me tell you that I am by no means a Carr Government supporter (far from it). It is just that the flack they are receiving for their actions is unjustified and hypocritical.

The truth is that the impending property revolution (as described in your website) is a direct function of completely unsustainable household debt and fundamentally atrocious investment by households into property investments. So called experts (agents, Institutes and spruikers) have been the primary driver for this bubble – convincing mum and dad investors to join the property pyramid – dangling the “carrot of property riches” so that they themselves can collect commissions, seminar fees etc……..

If you make a projection in the property market – surely it must have a minimum term of five years. If you were in property for a one-year punt, then you are better off punting the stock market – at least there is no stamp duty, brokerage fees of less than 0.2% and ample liquidity.

These experts have no right to change their property market calls based on a minor change in State Government property taxes. Worst still, they have no right to blame their incorrect market calls on someone else.

This is another good reason why we need serious regulatory changes implemented in this industry.

In most places, stock market analysts need to disclose their company’s AND their own personal position in a market when making a call.

In the Aussie property market, you can have little or no experience, nor education, stand on a soap box and make your calls without any disclosure or accountability – AND GET PAID A LOT OF MONEY FOR IT??

These experts are the perfect definition of a hypocrite – when will they be stopped??


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